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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 84,475 83,700 16:15 96.2°F 0% 100%
02 85,324 86,321 16:45 98.8°F 0% 100%
03 81,437 81,802 16:45 95.5°F 0% 100%
04 85,229 84,923 16:45 94.6°F 0% 100%
05 84,717 84,506 16:30 96.5°F 0% 100%
06 82,954 82,519 17:15 94.4°F 0% 100%
07 86,392 86,486 16:45 96.8°F 72% 100%
08 87,801 86,269 14:45 97.4°F 0% 28%
09 86,708 85,851 16:00 95.6°F 0% 28%
10 84,964 84,743 15:45 94.2°F 0% 28%
11 86,834 85,491 15:30 95.2°F 0% 28%
12 87,863 86,224 16:45 100.3°F 0% 28%
13 82,589 69,070 ⚠ gap 96.6°F 7% 28%
14 87,274 85,825 15:45 96.3°F 0% 21%
15 87,135 85,732 14:30 97.8°F 0% 21%
16 86,613 86,345 17:00 96.2°F 0% 21%
17 83,235 82,761 17:00 94.1°F 0% 21%
18 83,352 82,746 16:30 93.4°F 0% 21%
19 * 82,397 16:00 94.3°F 0% 21%
20 83,348 16:00 95.7°F 0% 21%
21 84,444 16:00 97.3°F 2% 21%
22 81,933 16:00 95.4°F 0% 19%
23 80,780 16:00 95.2°F 0% 19%
24 79,170 16:00 95.0°F 0% 19%
25 76,534 16:00 93.8°F 0% 19%
26 75,409 16:00 0% 19%
27 5% 19%
28 5% 14%
29 4% 9%
30 5% 5%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".