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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 84,475 83,702 16:15 96.2°F 0% 100%
02 85,324 86,321 16:45 98.8°F 1% 100%
03 81,437 81,802 16:45 95.5°F 0% 96%
04 85,229 84,923 16:45 94.6°F 1% 95%
05 84,717 84,506 16:30 96.5°F 0% 94%
06 82,954 82,516 17:15 94.4°F 0% 95%
07 86,392 86,486 16:45 96.8°F 7% 97%
08 87,801 86,265 14:45 97.4°F 33% 100%
09 86,708 85,851 16:00 95.6°F 11% 97%
10 84,964 84,743 15:45 94.2°F 0% 93%
11 86,834 85,491 15:30 95.2°F 18% 96%
12 87,863 86,224 16:45 97.9°F 41% 100%
13 86,095 86,121 16:30 97.5°F 8% 89%
14 87,274 85,825 15:45 96.3°F 36% 97%
15 87,135 85,732 14:30 97.8°F 41% 92%
16 86,613 86,355 17:00 96.2°F 29% 80%
17 83,235 82,761 17:00 94.1°F 0% 52%
18 83,352 82,730 16:30 93.4°F 0% 44%
19 83,450 82,601 16:30 93.5°F 0% 39%
20 83,682 83,374 16:15 94.6°F 0% 32%
21 86,625 86,093 16:00 94.8°F 46% 70%
22 87,068 85,877 16:00 93.4°F 66% 81%
23 86,164 84,906 15:45 93.4°F 30% 40%
24 83,732 83,497 16:30 92.2°F 0% 0%
25 82,037 81,451 16:30 91.6°F 0% 0%
26 79,435 78,346 16:45 91.5°F 0% 0%
27 82,816 81,744 17:15 94.3°F 0% 0%
28 83,395 82,727 17:15 93.2°F 0% 0%
29 81,265 80,915 16:30 92.2°F 0% 0%
30 78,064 77,990 15:30 90.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".