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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — 72,199 15:45 87.5°F 0% 100%
02 — 76,094 16:30 90.7°F 0% 100%
03 — 75,993 16:45 92.4°F 0% 100%
04 — 79,925 17:30 96.8°F 18% 100%
05 — 79,238 16:30 94.0°F 1% 100%
06 — 65,900 17:00 85.3°F 0% 100%
07 — 62,366 17:30 82.6°F 0% 100%
08 — 70,303 17:15 84.4°F 0% 100%
09 — 72,576 16:45 87.3°F 0% 100%
10 — 76,764 16:45 90.9°F 0% 100%
11 — 78,152 16:45 91.4°F 0% 100%
12 — 78,568 17:00 92.1°F 0% 99%
13 — 76,225 16:45 91.5°F 0% 99%
14 — 75,735 16:30 91.5°F 0% 98%
15 — 78,286 16:30 90.6°F 0% 97%
16 — 78,235 16:45 91.3°F 0% 95%
17 — 78,000 16:00 91.4°F 0% 98%
18 — 77,055 15:45 90.7°F 0% 97%
19 — 78,018 16:15 89.3°F 0% 96%
20 — 76,034 16:45 91.0°F 0% 95%
21 — 76,829 16:30 90.2°F 0% 93%
22 — 79,343 16:45 91.8°F 0% 92%
23 — 79,395 15:30 93.4°F 61% 88%
24 — 72,828 17:30 87.4°F 0% 0%
25 — 71,659 17:00 86.4°F 0% 0%
26 — 72,207 16:45 87.5°F 0% 0%
27 — 70,680 16:45 87.6°F 0% 0%
28 — 68,805 17:30 87.3°F 0% 0%
29 — 70,862 16:45 86.7°F 0% 0%
30 — 73,842 17:15 90.2°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".