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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — 89.4°F 0% 100%
02 — — — 86.2°F 0% 100%
03 — — — 83.8°F 0% 100%
04 — — — 83.7°F 0% 100%
05 — — — 85.6°F 0% 100%
06 — — — 86.7°F 0% 100%
07 — — — 85.0°F 0% 100%
08 — — — 82.8°F 0% 100%
09 — — — 84.1°F 0% 100%
10 — — — 87.6°F 0% 100%
11 — — — 88.5°F 0% 100%
12 — — — 88.6°F 0% 100%
13 — — — 93.6°F 3% 100%
14 — — — 93.7°F 0% 92%
15 — — — 90.2°F 0% 90%
16 — — — 90.7°F 0% 89%
17 — — — 90.8°F 0% 86%
18 — — — 92.6°F 0% 83%
19 — — — 94.1°F 10% 76%
20 — — — 93.9°F 10% 55%
21 — — — 92.2°F 0% 35%
22 — — — 89.8°F 0% 26%
23 — — — 86.1°F 0% 14%
24 — — — 88.9°F 0% 0%
25 — — — 88.4°F 0% 0%
26 — — — 85.8°F 0% 0%
27 — — — 88.3°F 0% 0%
28 — — — 90.0°F 0% 0%
29 — — — 89.7°F 0% 0%
30 — — — 90.2°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".