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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — — 3% 100%
02 — — — — 4% 97%
03 — — — — 4% 94%
04 — — — — 3% 89%
05 — — — — 3% 87%
06 — — — — 4% 83%
07 — — — — 3% 79%
08 — — — — 4% 77%
09 — — — — 4% 73%
10 — — — — 3% 70%
11 — — — — 3% 68%
12 — — — — 3% 64%
13 — — — — 3% 61%
14 — — — — 3% 55%
15 — — — — 4% 54%
16 — — — — 3% 48%
17 — — — — 5% 47%
18 — — — — 3% 43%
19 — — — — 3% 38%
20 — — — — 3% 35%
21 — — — — 4% 33%
22 — — — — 3% 29%
23 — — — — 4% 28%
24 — — — — 4% 22%
25 — — — — 3% 20%
26 — — — — 3% 16%
27 — — — — 3% 14%
28 — — — — 4% 9%
29 — — — — 3% 6%
30 — — — — 3% 3%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".