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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 83,537 82,835 16:15 97.3°F 0% 100%
02 85,035 83,864 17:15 97.5°F 0% 100%
03 87,942 86,751 16:30 99.0°F 1% 100%
04 88,633 87,171 16:45 97.9°F 3% 100%
05 88,576 86,651 16:15 97.8°F 3% 100%
06 87,294 85,934 17:45 96.1°F 1% 100%
07 88,206 86,886 16:30 97.2°F 1% 100%
08 84,499 84,722 16:15 96.9°F 0% 100%
09 85,191 85,162 16:45 95.0°F 0% 100%
10 83,881 82,799 16:15 95.2°F 0% 100%
11 88,461 86,406 15:30 96.1°F 3% 100%
12 88,872 87,662 18:45 98.1°F 4% 100%
13 89,283 87,468 16:45 99.6°F 6% 100%
14 88,693 87,290 16:15 97.1°F 1% 100%
15 88,985 87,439 16:15 98.1°F 1% 100%
16 89,037 88,053 17:30 98.4°F 0% 100%
17 90,378 89,258 16:45 100.0°F 2% 100%
18 90,681 89,709 17:15 100.4°F 2% 100%
19 90,887 89,289 16:45 100.1°F 2% 100%
20 91,035 90,141 18:30 101.0°F 4% 100%
21 90,369 89,719 16:45 100.9°F 2% 100%
22 90,424 90,090 18:15 103.3°F 2% 100%
23 90,084 90,513 18:15 102.8°F 1% 100%
24 91,579 91,316 16:45 103.0°F 76% 95%
25 88,662 89,962 17:15 101.2°F 0% 0%
26 91,407 91,138 16:30 99.6°F 53% 53%
27 92,071 89,753 16:45 96.4°F 80% 80%
28 90,329 88,780 15:30 97.0°F 12% 12%
29 89,008 88,271 17:00 97.8°F 0% 0%
30 88,494 88,957 17:30 98.7°F 0% 0%
31 89,339 88,689 16:45 96.7°F 1% 1%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".