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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — 81,529 16:30 94.0°F 0% 100%
02 — 75,615 16:45 93.6°F 0% 100%
03 — 77,695 17:45 93.9°F 0% 100%
04 — 76,498 17:45 92.8°F 0% 100%
05 — 80,993 16:45 93.8°F 0% 100%
06 — 81,260 15:15 96.0°F 0% 100%
07 — 82,274 16:45 97.6°F 0% 100%
08 — 82,537 15:30 98.6°F 2% 100%
09 — 82,050 16:00 97.4°F 0% 100%
10 — 81,552 16:15 96.6°F 0% 100%
11 — 82,014 16:45 93.9°F 0% 100%
12 — 81,421 15:30 93.0°F 0% 100%
13 — 81,627 17:30 93.6°F 0% 100%
14 — 82,472 17:00 96.1°F 0% 100%
15 — 81,318 16:45 93.6°F 0% 100%
16 — 79,663 17:15 94.2°F 0% 100%
17 — 81,912 17:15 95.7°F 0% 100%
18 — 83,987 17:15 97.3°F 5% 100%
19 — 82,432 15:30 95.2°F 0% 98%
20 — 80,063 16:45 93.2°F 0% 96%
21 — 79,567 17:00 92.5°F 0% 93%
22 — 77,682 16:45 90.9°F 0% 89%
23 — 77,673 15:45 92.4°F 0% 82%
24 — 82,212 17:15 93.6°F 0% 63%
25 — 82,742 16:30 93.6°F 0% 27%
26 — 77,813 16:30 91.8°F 0% 24%
27 — 80,418 17:00 91.4°F 0% 20%
28 — 83,428 15:15 95.8°F 21% 21%
29 — 76,668 15:00 92.5°F 0% 0%
30 — 71,676 16:45 90.7°F 0% 0%
31 — 66,704 17:00 89.1°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".