Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard

D	Proj Peak (MW)	Actual Peak (MW)	Time of Peak	Avg Temp	4CP Prob	P(peak on/after)
01	—	—	—	96.5°F	0%	100%
02	—	—	—	97.0°F	0%	100%
03	—	—	—	96.8°F	0%	98%
04	—	—	—	95.2°F	0%	98%
05	—	—	—	94.5°F	0%	98%
06	—	—	—	96.9°F	0%	98%
07	—	—	—	99.3°F	3%	97%
08	—	—	—	98.9°F	1%	86%
09	—	—	—	94.2°F	0%	81%
10	—	—	—	95.0°F	0%	80%
11	—	—	—	96.1°F	0%	78%
12	—	—	—	96.5°F	0%	73%
13	—	—	—	95.8°F	0%	80%
14	—	—	—	96.7°F	0%	82%
15	—	—	—	97.3°F	0%	82%
16	—	—	—	98.2°F	0%	79%
17	—	—	—	97.5°F	0%	73%
18	—	—	—	98.5°F	0%	71%
19	—	—	—	100.3°F	8%	65%
20	—	—	—	100.4°F	13%	46%
21	—	—	—	100.2°F	6%	27%
22	—	—	—	98.7°F	0%	16%
23	—	—	—	97.3°F	0%	11%
24	—	—	—	96.5°F	0%	5%
25	—	—	—	95.5°F	0%	0%
26	—	—	—	91.7°F	0%	0%
27	—	—	—	91.0°F	0%	0%
28	—	—	—	91.9°F	0%	0%
29	—	—	—	90.9°F	0%	0%
30	—	—	—	89.3°F	0%	0%
31	—	—	—	90.1°F	0%	0%

Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".