Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard
« Prev Next »
D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 81,641 80,957 18:30 94.3°F 0% 100%
02 81,470 81,683 16:30 94.8°F 0% 100%
03 81,401 81,670 17:45 95.2°F 0% 100%
04 82,559 82,112 16:30 96.6°F 0% 100%
05 81,312 81,250 16:30 95.7°F 0% 100%
06 83,195 83,043 16:15 95.0°F 0% 100%
07 83,013 82,890 15:30 94.1°F 0% 100%
08 83,921 83,055 14:45 95.3°F 2% 100%
09 83,373 82,529 15:45 95.1°F 1% 100%
10 82,281 82,375 17:15 92.8°F 0% 99%
11 76,270 76,472 17:00 91.7°F 0% 98%
12 78,084 78,293 15:30 92.5°F 0% 98%
13 73,444 73,119 16:45 89.1°F 0% 98%
14 69,046 68,895 16:30 85.3°F 0% 99%
15 66,344 65,570 17:45 84.8°F 0% 100%
16 75,085 74,638 15:15 88.1°F 0% 100%
17 80,350 80,576 16:30 90.2°F 0% 100%
18 81,262 81,033 17:15 92.7°F 0% 100%
19 83,059 82,400 17:15 93.2°F 0% 100%
20 85,636 85,121 16:45 96.1°F 0% 100%
21 87,503 87,673 18:30 99.5°F 0% 100%
22 90,330 91,518 17:15 102.7°F 88% 100%
23 84,405 84,585 16:15 96.1°F 0% 4%
24 84,539 84,234 17:15 94.8°F 0% 3%
25 84,734 83,976 17:15 95.5°F 0% 7%
26 86,296 86,287 17:30 96.7°F 0% 5%
27 88,921 89,026 17:30 97.5°F 0% 4%
28 88,503 89,167 16:45 97.4°F 0% 2%
29 88,632 88,984 16:45 97.2°F 0% 1%
30 91,692 90,158 17:30 98.9°F 57% 58%
31 90,613 89,467 15:45 99.6°F 14% 14%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".