Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard

D	Proj Peak (MW)	Actual Peak (MW)	Time of Peak	Avg Temp	4CP Prob	P(peak on/after)
01	—	75,634	15:30	87.8°F	0%	100%
02	—	74,853	14:30	89.6°F	0%	100%
03	—	67,656	13:30	87.0°F	0%	100%
04	—	67,728	15:30	86.7°F	0%	100%
05	—	65,203	15:45	87.5°F	0%	100%
06	—	69,473	17:30	89.0°F	0%	100%
07	—	74,693	17:30	88.2°F	0%	100%
08	—	73,493	16:15	89.0°F	0%	100%
09	—	73,990	17:15	88.8°F	0%	100%
10	—	77,044	17:45	91.5°F	0%	100%
11	—	75,345	16:30	91.1°F	0%	100%
12	—	73,924	16:30	89.7°F	0%	100%
13	—	69,327	17:30	88.8°F	0%	100%
14	—	75,706	17:15	89.0°F	0%	100%
15	—	77,995	16:45	91.5°F	0%	100%
16	—	78,586	16:45	93.8°F	0%	100%
17	—	77,920	16:15	93.5°F	0%	100%
18	—	78,185	15:45	94.0°F	0%	100%
19	—	61,695	⚠ gap	94.8°F	0%	100%
20	—	77,544	17:45	94.3°F	0%	99%
21	—	79,332	17:30	95.9°F	1%	99%
22	—	79,902	18:15	95.0°F	0%	99%
23	—	80,957	17:30	96.4°F	1%	100%
24	—	81,875	16:45	98.1°F	30%	100%
25	—	78,888	15:30	94.5°F	0%	100%
26	—	76,314	15:30	92.8°F	0%	100%
27	—	77,829	17:30	92.1°F	0%	100%
28	—	81,541	15:30	95.3°F	0%	100%
29	—	81,517	16:45	97.8°F	28%	100%
30	—	81,863	17:45	98.4°F	93%	100%
31	—	81,913	16:30	96.9°F	96%	96%

Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".