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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — 96.8°F 0% 100%
02 — — — 98.4°F 9% 96%
03 — — — 97.2°F 0% 79%
04 — — — 97.6°F 2% 74%
05 — — — 93.5°F 0% 67%
06 — — — 92.7°F 0% 66%
07 — — — 92.9°F 0% 62%
08 — — — 88.3°F 0% 62%
09 — — — 91.8°F 0% 59%
10 — — — 91.6°F 0% 59%
11 — — — 91.3°F 0% 57%
12 — — — 90.5°F 0% 55%
13 — — — 90.2°F 0% 49%
14 — — — 91.8°F 0% 49%
15 — — — 94.9°F 0% 46%
16 — — — 95.3°F 0% 44%
17 — — — 93.0°F 0% 39%
18 — — — 90.3°F 0% 35%
19 — — — 91.3°F 0% 31%
20 — — — 91.7°F 0% 27%
21 — — — 90.0°F 0% 22%
22 — — — 87.3°F 0% 17%
23 — — — 85.6°F 0% 12%
24 — — — 87.7°F 0% 6%
25 — — — 86.5°F 0% 1%
26 — — — 85.9°F 0% 1%
27 — — — 87.4°F 0% 1%
28 — — — 91.4°F 0% 0%
29 — — — 93.6°F 0% 0%
30 — — — 94.7°F 0% 0%
31 — — — 95.7°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".