Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 96.8°F 0% 100%
02 98.4°F 9% 96%
03 97.2°F 1% 82%
04 97.6°F 2% 77%
05 93.5°F 0% 71%
06 92.7°F 0% 69%
07 92.9°F 0% 68%
08 88.3°F 0% 65%
09 91.8°F 0% 63%
10 91.6°F 0% 63%
11 91.3°F 0% 59%
12 90.5°F 0% 55%
13 90.2°F 0% 56%
14 91.8°F 0% 51%
15 94.9°F 0% 47%
16 95.3°F 0% 45%
17 93.0°F 0% 43%
18 90.3°F 0% 39%
19 91.3°F 0% 35%
20 91.7°F 0% 27%
21 90.0°F 0% 22%
22 87.3°F 0% 19%
23 85.6°F 0% 14%
24 87.7°F 0% 8%
25 86.5°F 0% 3%
26 85.9°F 0% 1%
27 87.4°F 0% 1%
28 91.4°F 0% 0%
29 93.6°F 0% 0%
30 94.7°F 0% 0%
31 95.7°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".