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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 78,677 16:00 91.4°F 0% 100%
02 78,053 14:45 91.0°F 0% 100%
03 71,473 16:15 85.3°F 0% 100%
04 72,586 16:45 86.1°F 0% 100%
05 67,275 15:30 83.8°F 0% 100%
06 72,037 17:00 86.9°F 0% 100%
07 72,808 17:30 88.4°F 0% 100%
08 77,520 16:30 90.0°F 0% 100%
09 77,830 15:45 90.0°F 0% 100%
10 78,309 16:45 92.2°F 0% 100%
11 77,846 17:15 92.3°F 0% 100%
12 76,795 16:45 90.1°F 0% 100%
13 77,187 16:00 90.9°F 0% 100%
14 72,485 16:00 87.4°F 0% 100%
15 67,971 17:45 82.6°F 0% 100%
16 73,696 17:30 86.3°F 0% 100%
17 77,547 17:15 92.5°F 0% 100%
18 82,853 15:45 95.1°F 31% 100%
19 71,159 16:30 87.4°F 0% 73%
20 70,743 16:15 87.3°F 0% 78%
21 77,692 17:45 91.2°F 0% 78%
22 81,951 17:15 93.0°F 0% 82%
23 81,319 17:30 92.1°F 0% 97%
24 82,190 16:15 93.0°F 0% 97%
25 80,853 17:30 92.8°F 0% 98%
26 81,765 17:15 94.5°F 2% 98%
27 82,347 82,016 17:15 95.7°F 2% 99%
28 81,741 81,481 16:45 95.7°F 0% 99%
29 84,678 81,682 18:15 96.6°F 98% 99%
30 83,555 81,394 16:15 94.7°F 82% 82%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".