Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard

D	Proj Peak (MW)	Actual Peak (MW)	Time of Peak	Avg Temp	4CP Prob	P(peak on/after)
01	—	—	—	90.0°F	0%	100%
02	—	—	—	92.4°F	0%	100%
03	—	—	—	90.2°F	0%	100%
04	—	—	—	87.7°F	0%	99%
05	—	—	—	90.4°F	0%	99%
06	—	—	—	92.1°F	0%	100%
07	—	—	—	94.2°F	0%	99%
08	—	—	—	95.2°F	0%	98%
09	—	—	—	91.4°F	0%	95%
10	—	—	—	87.7°F	0%	95%
11	—	—	—	82.6°F	0%	95%
12	—	—	—	85.1°F	0%	93%
13	—	—	—	88.1°F	0%	92%
14	—	—	—	89.2°F	0%	91%
15	—	—	—	88.4°F	0%	90%
16	—	—	—	90.3°F	0%	88%
17	—	—	—	93.1°F	0%	86%
18	—	—	—	92.7°F	0%	77%
19	—	—	—	92.4°F	0%	73%
20	—	—	—	92.9°F	1%	62%
21	—	—	—	93.1°F	0%	51%
22	—	—	—	92.0°F	0%	39%
23	—	—	—	93.1°F	1%	23%
24	—	—	—	92.6°F	0%	1%
25	—	—	—	91.1°F	0%	0%
26	—	—	—	91.7°F	0%	0%
27	—	—	—	92.2°F	0%	0%
28	—	73,451	19:45	93.4°F	0%	0%
29	—	74,051	16:45	92.1°F	0%	0%
30	—	76,344	14:45	91.4°F	0%	0%

Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".