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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — 87.1°F 0% 100%
02 — — — 89.0°F 0% 100%
03 — — — 92.2°F 0% 100%
04 — — — 94.8°F 0% 100%
05 — — — 90.8°F 0% 97%
06 — — — 94.0°F 0% 97%
07 — — — 94.1°F 0% 92%
08 — — — 94.1°F 0% 87%
09 — — — 92.3°F 0% 87%
10 — — — 87.9°F 0% 85%
11 — — — 88.4°F 0% 83%
12 — — — 89.4°F 0% 82%
13 — — — 92.2°F 0% 79%
14 — — — 93.1°F 0% 78%
15 — — — 93.6°F 0% 74%
16 — — — 94.2°F 0% 71%
17 — — — 93.4°F 0% 65%
18 — — — 92.7°F 0% 59%
19 — — — 85.6°F 0% 62%
20 — — — 86.4°F 0% 66%
21 — — — 88.6°F 0% 70%
22 — — — 91.0°F 0% 78%
23 — — — 92.3°F 0% 79%
24 — — — 93.5°F 0% 74%
25 — — — 95.1°F 2% 70%
26 — — — 95.5°F 5% 56%
27 — — — 95.6°F 4% 39%
28 — — — 96.4°F 27% 28%
29 — — — 96.5°F 1% 1%
30 — — — 95.9°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".