Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard
« Prev Next »
D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 87.1°F 0% 100%
02 89.0°F 0% 100%
03 92.2°F 0% 100%
04 94.8°F 0% 100%
05 90.8°F 0% 95%
06 94.0°F 0% 95%
07 94.1°F 1% 90%
08 94.1°F 0% 84%
09 92.3°F 0% 82%
10 87.9°F 0% 81%
11 88.4°F 0% 79%
12 89.4°F 0% 79%
13 92.2°F 0% 76%
14 93.1°F 0% 72%
15 93.6°F 0% 68%
16 94.2°F 0% 65%
17 93.4°F 0% 59%
18 92.7°F 0% 55%
19 85.6°F 0% 60%
20 86.4°F 0% 66%
21 88.6°F 0% 72%
22 91.0°F 0% 81%
23 92.3°F 0% 81%
24 93.5°F 0% 79%
25 95.1°F 2% 75%
26 95.5°F 5% 61%
27 95.6°F 5% 46%
28 96.4°F 29% 31%
29 96.5°F 2% 2%
30 95.9°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".