Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard

D	Proj Peak (MW)	Actual Peak (MW)	Time of Peak	Avg Temp	4CP Prob	P(peak on/after)
01	—	—	—	68.5°F	0%	100%
02	—	—	—	72.9°F	0%	100%
03	—	—	—	77.8°F	0%	100%
04	—	—	—	82.3°F	0%	100%
05	—	—	—	86.5°F	0%	100%
06	—	—	—	79.5°F	0%	100%
07	—	—	—	75.5°F	0%	100%
08	—	—	—	79.6°F	0%	100%
09	—	—	—	87.3°F	0%	100%
10	—	—	—	85.2°F	0%	100%
11	—	—	—	79.5°F	0%	100%
12	—	—	—	85.3°F	0%	100%
13	—	72,775	18:30	89.6°F	0%	100%
14	—	73,758	17:15	90.5°F	0%	100%
15	—	69,505	15:45	90.4°F	0%	100%
16	—	69,779	17:45	89.3°F	0%	100%
17	—	68,381	17:15	88.6°F	0%	100%
18	—	75,785	17:15	89.9°F	0%	100%
19	—	68,085	15:15	84.8°F	0%	100%
20	—	63,955	17:45	79.8°F	0%	100%
21	—	59,950	17:30	78.7°F	0%	100%
22	—	70,989	16:15	84.7°F	0%	100%
23	—	60,281	17:30	81.8°F	0%	99%
24	—	66,937	15:45	84.3°F	0%	94%
25	—	68,559	16:15	85.9°F	0%	89%
26	—	69,921	17:30	84.1°F	0%	89%
27	—	61,099	18:15	80.1°F	0%	90%
28	—	72,758	17:15	86.3°F	0%	91%
29	—	76,934	17:15	88.8°F	2%	95%
30	—	73,084	17:30	90.4°F	0%	62%
31	—	75,996	17:15	91.9°F	65%	65%

Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".