Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard
« Prev Next »
D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — 68.5°F 0% 100%
02 — — — 72.9°F 0% 100%
03 — — — 77.8°F 0% 100%
04 — — — 82.3°F 0% 100%
05 — — — 86.5°F 0% 100%
06 — — — 79.5°F 0% 100%
07 — — — 75.5°F 0% 100%
08 — — — 79.6°F 0% 100%
09 — — — 87.3°F 0% 100%
10 — — — 85.2°F 0% 100%
11 — — — 79.5°F 0% 100%
12 — — — 85.3°F 0% 100%
13 — 72,775 18:30 89.6°F 0% 100%
14 — 73,758 17:15 90.5°F 0% 100%
15 — 69,505 15:45 90.4°F 0% 100%
16 — 69,779 17:45 89.3°F 0% 100%
17 — 68,381 17:15 88.6°F 0% 100%
18 — 75,785 17:15 89.9°F 0% 100%
19 — 68,085 15:15 84.8°F 0% 100%
20 — 63,955 17:45 79.8°F 0% 100%
21 — 59,950 17:30 78.7°F 0% 100%
22 — 70,989 16:15 84.7°F 0% 100%
23 — 60,281 17:30 81.8°F 0% 100%
24 — 66,937 15:45 84.3°F 0% 96%
25 — 68,559 16:15 85.9°F 0% 93%
26 — 69,921 17:30 84.1°F 0% 93%
27 — 61,099 18:15 80.1°F 0% 95%
28 — 72,758 17:15 86.3°F 0% 96%
29 — 76,934 17:15 88.8°F 3% 97%
30 — 73,084 17:30 90.4°F 0% 77%
31 — 75,996 17:15 91.9°F 79% 79%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".