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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — 84.0°F 0% 100%
02 — — — 80.3°F 0% 100%
03 — — — 75.8°F 0% 100%
04 — — — 76.9°F 0% 100%
05 — — — 76.7°F 0% 100%
06 — — — 80.4°F 0% 100%
07 — — — 80.0°F 0% 100%
08 — — — 78.5°F 0% 100%
09 — — — 78.3°F 0% 100%
10 — — — 78.7°F 0% 100%
11 — — — 80.3°F 0% 100%
12 — — — 87.4°F 0% 100%
13 — — — 95.7°F 2% 100%
14 — — — 96.5°F 17% 86%
15 — — — 91.6°F 0% 62%
16 — — — 93.0°F 0% 57%
17 — — — 93.5°F 0% 55%
18 — — — 91.3°F 0% 49%
19 — — — 89.7°F 0% 46%
20 — — — 89.0°F 0% 42%
21 — — — 90.5°F 0% 37%
22 — — — 92.8°F 0% 30%
23 — — — 94.1°F 2% 22%
24 — — — 94.6°F 0% 12%
25 — — — 92.8°F 0% 0%
26 — — — 85.6°F 0% 0%
27 — — — 85.1°F 0% 0%
28 — — — 82.7°F 0% 0%
29 — — — 86.6°F 0% 0%
30 — — — 82.4°F 0% 0%
31 — — — 86.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".