Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 84.0°F 0% 100%
02 80.3°F 0% 100%
03 75.8°F 0% 100%
04 76.9°F 0% 100%
05 76.7°F 0% 100%
06 80.4°F 0% 100%
07 80.0°F 0% 100%
08 78.5°F 0% 100%
09 78.3°F 0% 100%
10 78.7°F 0% 100%
11 80.3°F 0% 100%
12 87.4°F 0% 100%
13 95.7°F 2% 100%
14 96.5°F 23% 86%
15 91.6°F 0% 55%
16 93.0°F 0% 53%
17 93.5°F 0% 50%
18 91.3°F 0% 44%
19 89.7°F 0% 41%
20 89.0°F 0% 37%
21 90.5°F 0% 33%
22 92.8°F 0% 26%
23 94.1°F 2% 19%
24 94.6°F 0% 9%
25 92.8°F 0% 0%
26 85.6°F 0% 0%
27 85.1°F 0% 0%
28 82.7°F 0% 0%
29 86.6°F 0% 0%
30 82.4°F 0% 0%
31 86.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".