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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 84.1°F 0% 100%
02 83.6°F 0% 100%
03 81.9°F 0% 100%
04 82.1°F 0% 100%
05 81.1°F 0% 100%
06 85.3°F 0% 100%
07 87.5°F 0% 100%
08 89.7°F 0% 100%
09 87.0°F 0% 100%
10 83.3°F 0% 100%
11 80.3°F 0% 100%
12 82.0°F 0% 100%
13 84.6°F 0% 100%
14 85.9°F 0% 100%
15 87.6°F 0% 100%
16 82.5°F 0% 100%
17 81.5°F 0% 100%
18 89.6°F 0% 100%
19 90.9°F 0% 100%
20 91.4°F 0% 100%
21 91.4°F 0% 99%
22 90.0°F 0% 98%
23 90.7°F 0% 97%
24 92.0°F 0% 96%
25 93.8°F 0% 91%
26 94.2°F 1% 85%
27 95.2°F 78% 78%
28 89.2°F 0% 0%
29 87.2°F 0% 0%
30 87.5°F 0% 0%
31 85.9°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".