Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 86.1°F 0% 100%
02 83.7°F 0% 100%
03 83.5°F 0% 100%
04 76.2°F 0% 100%
05 67.1°F 0% 100%
06 71.2°F 0% 100%
07 72.6°F 0% 100%
08 78.0°F 0% 100%
09 80.7°F 0% 100%
10 79.8°F 0% 100%
11 79.7°F 0% 100%
12 77.9°F 0% 100%
13 83.6°F 0% 100%
14 82.7°F 0% 100%
15 81.8°F 0% 100%
16 84.3°F 0% 100%
17 84.7°F 0% 100%
18 77.2°F 0% 100%
19 68.5°F 0% 100%
20 68.4°F 0% 100%
21 70.4°F 0% 100%
22 80.8°F 0% 100%
23 82.9°F 0% 100%
24 85.9°F 0% 97%
25 87.3°F 0% 94%
26 87.0°F 0% 90%
27 88.8°F 56% 87%
28 88.5°F 34% 34%
29 79.4°F 0% 0%
30 74.9°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".