Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 84.1°F 0% 100%
02 73.9°F 0% 100%
03 74.6°F 0% 100%
04 81.8°F 0% 100%
05 83.7°F 0% 100%
06 80.8°F 0% 100%
07 79.6°F 0% 100%
08 81.3°F 0% 100%
09 77.5°F 0% 100%
10 72.4°F 0% 100%
11 76.7°F 0% 100%
12 79.3°F 0% 100%
13 81.7°F 0% 100%
14 84.3°F 0% 100%
15 84.2°F 0% 100%
16 84.2°F 0% 100%
17 85.2°F 0% 100%
18 85.5°F 0% 100%
19 78.1°F 0% 100%
20 73.6°F 0% 100%
21 68.2°F 0% 100%
22 70.3°F 0% 100%
23 79.1°F 0% 99%
24 81.9°F 0% 19%
25 83.3°F 0% 16%
26 81.6°F 0% 14%
27 83.8°F 0% 10%
28 80.7°F 0% 10%
29 85.0°F 3% 8%
30 84.9°F 5% 5%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".