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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 82.7°F 0% 100%
02 80.7°F 0% 100%
03 84.3°F 0% 100%
04 80.0°F 0% 100%
05 81.7°F 0% 100%
06 82.9°F 0% 100%
07 76.8°F 0% 100%
08 72.3°F 0% 100%
09 81.7°F 0% 100%
10 81.9°F 0% 100%
11 77.1°F 0% 100%
12 66.2°F 0% 100%
13 77.0°F 0% 100%
14 82.6°F 0% 100%
15 86.5°F 0% 100%
16 55.8°F 0% 100%
17 64.2°F 0% 100%
18 75.6°F 0% 100%
19 83.6°F 0% 100%
20 87.7°F 0% 100%
21 90.4°F 0% 100%
22 89.9°F 0% 100%
23 81.3°F 0% 99%
24 84.9°F 0% 92%
25 86.8°F 1% 3%
26 86.9°F 1% 1%
27 83.0°F 0% 0%
28 70.9°F 0% 0%
29 82.5°F 0% 0%
30 85.2°F 0% 0%
31 86.0°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".