Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 78.2°F 0% 100%
02 75.7°F 0% 100%
03 78.3°F 0% 100%
04 74.2°F 0% 100%
05 65.9°F 0% 100%
06 69.7°F 0% 100%
07 80.2°F 0% 100%
08 75.7°F 0% 100%
09 62.5°F 0% 100%
10 72.2°F 0% 100%
11 77.7°F 0% 100%
12 83.2°F 0% 100%
13 85.9°F 0% 100%
14 84.9°F 0% 100%
15 75.3°F 0% 100%
16 74.6°F 0% 100%
17 81.0°F 0% 100%
18 82.9°F 0% 100%
19 76.9°F 0% 100%
20 66.9°F 0% 100%
21 75.5°F 0% 100%
22 82.4°F 0% 100%
23 82.6°F 0% 100%
24 82.9°F 0% 100%
25 88.0°F 84% 84%
26 80.0°F 0% 0%
27 75.1°F 0% 0%
28 76.1°F 0% 0%
29 83.7°F 0% 0%
30 82.3°F 0% 0%
31 77.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".