Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 69.7°F 0% 100%
02 76.4°F 0% 100%
03 79.6°F 0% 100%
04 79.6°F 0% 100%
05 80.9°F 0% 100%
06 79.6°F 0% 100%
07 76.7°F 0% 100%
08 75.7°F 0% 100%
09 62.0°F 0% 100%
10 64.8°F 0% 100%
11 71.6°F 0% 100%
12 77.0°F 0% 100%
13 83.1°F 0% 100%
14 82.2°F 0% 100%
15 75.4°F 0% 100%
16 70.7°F 0% 100%
17 70.8°F 0% 100%
18 64.1°F 0% 100%
19 63.7°F 0% 100%
20 69.9°F 0% 100%
21 72.9°F 0% 100%
22 76.4°F 0% 100%
23 71.4°F 0% 100%
24 74.7°F 0% 100%
25 74.9°F 0% 22%
26 65.6°F 0% 21%
27 66.8°F 0% 20%
28 74.3°F 0% 19%
29 77.8°F 0% 17%
30 80.5°F 0% 17%
31 82.9°F 16% 16%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".