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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — — 10% 100%
02 — — — — 10% 97%
03 — — — — 10% 92%
04 — — — — 10% 89%
05 — — — — 10% 86%
06 — — — — 10% 82%
07 — — — — 10% 79%
08 — — — — 10% 76%
09 — — — — 10% 73%
10 — — — — 10% 68%
11 — — — — 10% 65%
12 — — — — 10% 61%
13 — — — — 10% 58%
14 — — — — 10% 54%
15 — — — — 10% 50%
16 — — — — 10% 46%
17 — — — — 10% 42%
18 — — — — 10% 38%
19 — — — — 10% 35%
20 — — — — 10% 31%
21 — — — — 10% 28%
22 — — — — 10% 25%
23 — — — — 10% 22%
24 — — — — 10% 18%
25 — — — — 10% 14%
26 — — — — 10% 10%
27 — — — — 10% 7%
28 — — — — 10% 4%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".