Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 52.9°F 0% 100%
02 67.3°F 0% 100%
03 68.1°F 0% 100%
04 61.6°F 0% 100%
05 66.2°F 0% 100%
06 77.3°F 0% 100%
07 75.9°F 0% 100%
08 77.4°F 0% 100%
09 79.8°F 0% 100%
10 72.8°F 0% 100%
11 71.0°F 0% 100%
12 77.0°F 0% 100%
13 77.3°F 0% 100%
14 73.1°F 0% 100%
15 70.3°F 0% 100%
16 73.1°F 0% 100%
17 79.2°F 0% 100%
18 77.2°F 0% 100%
19 78.3°F 0% 100%
20 72.2°F 0% 100%
21 69.9°F 0% 100%
22 61.1°F 0% 99%
23 62.5°F 0% 99%
24 73.6°F 0% 99%
25 81.8°F 0% 99%
26 84.3°F 87% 93%
27 83.0°F 17% 18%
28 83.5°F 3% 3%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".