Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 69.2°F 0% 100%
02 75.1°F 0% 100%
03 80.5°F 0% 100%
04 76.8°F 0% 100%
05 78.8°F 0% 100%
06 81.2°F 0% 100%
07 80.3°F 0% 100%
08 82.9°F 0% 100%
09 68.5°F 0% 100%
10 60.3°F 0% 100%
11 61.8°F 0% 100%
12 65.3°F 0% 100%
13 47.7°F 0% 100%
14 56.3°F 0% 100%
15 71.7°F 0% 100%
16 54.5°F 0% 100%
17 61.2°F 0% 100%
18 63.1°F 0% 100%
19 42.0°F 0% 100%
20 37.1°F 0% 100%
21 38.1°F 0% 100%
22 46.8°F 0% 0%
23 61.1°F 0% 0%
24 70.0°F 0% 0%
25 74.5°F 0% 0%
26 75.3°F 0% 0%
27 69.9°F 0% 0%
28 73.0°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".