Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 71.2°F 0% 100%
02 71.4°F 0% 100%
03 69.3°F 0% 100%
04 66.1°F 0% 100%
05 63.2°F 0% 100%
06 65.2°F 0% 100%
07 68.4°F 0% 100%
08 71.1°F 0% 100%
09 73.5°F 0% 100%
10 68.5°F 0% 100%
11 64.0°F 0% 100%
12 58.0°F 0% 100%
13 63.5°F 0% 100%
14 67.1°F 0% 100%
15 71.0°F 0% 100%
16 67.9°F 0% 100%
17 52.6°F 0% 100%
18 52.5°F 0% 100%
19 65.6°F 0% 100%
20 75.6°F 0% 100%
21 78.1°F 0% 100%
22 78.4°F 0% 100%
23 71.7°F 0% 100%
24 75.3°F 0% 100%
25 80.5°F 0% 100%
26 85.6°F 99% 100%
27 83.3°F 12% 12%
28 71.9°F 0% 0%
29 55.2°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".