Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard
« Prev Next »
D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 47.9°F 0% 100%
02 53.3°F 0% 100%
03 60.8°F 0% 100%
04 54.8°F 0% 100%
05 55.2°F 0% 100%
06 65.1°F 0% 100%
07 67.2°F 0% 100%
08 58.3°F 0% 100%
09 65.5°F 0% 100%
10 69.0°F 0% 100%
11 68.4°F 0% 100%
12 72.8°F 0% 100%
13 72.5°F 0% 100%
14 58.8°F 0% 100%
15 52.9°F 0% 100%
16 63.1°F 0% 100%
17 67.2°F 0% 100%
18 72.4°F 0% 100%
19 66.8°F 0% 100%
20 78.4°F 0% 100%
21 71.4°F 0% 100%
22 77.1°F 0% 100%
23 79.5°F 0% 100%
24 78.3°F 0% 100%
25 79.1°F 0% 82%
26 81.4°F 74% 75%
27 81.0°F 5% 5%
28 79.1°F 0% 0%
29 57.3°F 0% 0%
30 54.9°F 0% 0%
31 65.4°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".