Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 65.0°F 0% 100%
02 64.8°F 0% 100%
03 62.5°F 0% 100%
04 67.1°F 0% 100%
05 61.2°F 0% 100%
06 54.3°F 0% 100%
07 54.7°F 0% 100%
08 63.0°F 0% 100%
09 73.4°F 0% 100%
10 59.5°F 0% 100%
11 57.5°F 0% 100%
12 62.1°F 0% 100%
13 67.8°F 0% 100%
14 72.5°F 0% 100%
15 76.6°F 0% 100%
16 74.4°F 0% 100%
17 75.2°F 0% 100%
18 68.5°F 0% 100%
19 63.6°F 0% 100%
20 62.3°F 0% 100%
21 59.5°F 0% 100%
22 64.7°F 0% 100%
23 72.8°F 0% 100%
24 70.6°F 0% 100%
25 66.0°F 0% 70%
26 68.9°F 0% 70%
27 73.5°F 0% 72%
28 73.0°F 0% 72%
29 70.8°F 0% 74%
30 78.2°F 75% 75%
31 64.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".