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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — — — 73.0°F 0% 100%
02 — — — 72.2°F 0% 100%
03 — — — 76.6°F 0% 100%
04 — — — 78.0°F 0% 100%
05 — — — 81.6°F 0% 100%
06 — 59,190 16:30 82.1°F 0% 100%
07 — — — 83.4°F 0% 100%
08 — — — 84.0°F 0% 100%
09 — — — 69.3°F 0% 100%
10 — — — 60.1°F 0% 100%
11 — — — 73.2°F 0% 100%
12 — — — 79.6°F 0% 100%
13 — — — 82.4°F 0% 100%
14 — 60,041 15:45 83.3°F 0% 100%
15 — 59,985 15:45 84.8°F 0% 100%
16 — 61,059 15:30 83.6°F 0% 100%
17 — 64,965 15:45 84.1°F 0% 100%
18 — 63,769 14:30 84.1°F 0% 100%
19 — 63,009 14:15 82.5°F 0% 100%
20 — 59,086 16:30 79.5°F 0% 100%
21 — — — 78.2°F 0% 100%
22 — — — 73.1°F 0% 100%
23 — — — 70.8°F 0% 100%
24 — — — 75.2°F 0% 0%
25 — — — 75.5°F 0% 0%
26 — — — 63.6°F 0% 0%
27 — — — 63.3°F 0% 0%
28 — — — 64.3°F 0% 0%
29 — — — 73.7°F 0% 0%
30 — — — 57.6°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".