Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 81.1°F 0% 100%
02 81.2°F 0% 100%
03 82.7°F 0% 100%
04 81.7°F 0% 100%
05 72.3°F 0% 100%
06 77.0°F 0% 100%
07 79.5°F 0% 100%
08 77.0°F 0% 100%
09 74.9°F 0% 100%
10 79.1°F 0% 100%
11 77.8°F 0% 100%
12 76.9°F 0% 100%
13 77.4°F 0% 100%
14 71.7°F 0% 100%
15 72.0°F 0% 100%
16 77.6°F 0% 100%
17 78.9°F 0% 100%
18 76.6°F 0% 100%
19 74.4°F 0% 100%
20 64.4°F 0% 100%
21 66.2°F 0% 100%
22 68.3°F 0% 100%
23 72.6°F 0% 100%
24 79.1°F 0% 1%
25 76.1°F 0% 1%
26 63.8°F 0% 1%
27 80.1°F 1% 1%
28 63.4°F 0% 0%
29 56.2°F 0% 0%
30 60.6°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".