Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 69,241 66,808 15:45 86.3°F 0% 100%
02 63,844 66,751 15:15 81.0°F 0% 100%
03 61,314 62,620 16:45 80.3°F 0% 100%
04 61,608 60,502 19:30 79.3°F 0% 100%
05 67,532 69,569 16:15 83.0°F 0% 100%
06 69,405 72,329 16:45 85.6°F 0% 100%
07 71,780 72,837 17:00 86.6°F 0% 100%
08 75,458 74,948 16:30 88.4°F 0% 100%
09 73,278 73,419 16:30 89.2°F 0% 100%
10 73,220 71,389 17:00 87.8°F 0% 100%
11 73,521 72,973 17:00 89.0°F 0% 100%
12 76,533 75,956 16:15 89.3°F 0% 100%
13 81,248 80,802 16:30 91.6°F 0% 100%
14 80,252 79,252 15:30 89.1°F 0% 100%
15 74,102 75,334 16:30 86.5°F 0% 100%
16 57,628 55,744 ⚠ gap 73.2°F 0% 100%
17 49,994 50,665 19:15 66.3°F 0% 100%
18 51,815 52,891 19:15 71.8°F 0% 99%
19 56,601 56,866 17:30 77.7°F 0% 99%
20 60,313 60,121 17:15 80.6°F 0% 96%
21 62,416 62,893 16:45 82.7°F 0% 94%
22 64,519 63,582 16:30 83.6°F 0% 87%
23 64,534 63,802 17:00 83.8°F 0% 74%
24 62,991 61,982 16:30 82.6°F 0% 50%
25 59,414 58,530 16:00 80.1°F 0% 0%
26 60,545 60,052 16:15 79.3°F 0% 0%
27 61,425 61,251 16:45 79.5°F 0% 0%
28 63,600 63,706 16:15 81.6°F 0% 0%
29 59,851 59,764 15:30 78.6°F 0% 0%
30 56,218 56,129 14:30 74.5°F 0% 0%
31 60,110 59,922 16:30 77.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".