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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp		 4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 — 75,803 16:30 92.3°F 0% 100%
02 — 75,781 16:30 92.2°F 0% 100%
03 — 74,460 16:45 90.7°F 0% 100%
04 — 69,759 16:30 88.0°F 0% 100%
05 — 71,548 16:30 89.1°F 0% 100%
06 — 75,637 16:00 90.5°F 0% 100%
07 — 74,745 16:15 89.0°F 0% 100%
08 — 73,583 16:15 88.3°F 0% 100%
09 — 73,414 16:45 88.4°F 0% 100%
10 — 70,238 16:45 88.6°F 0% 100%
11 — 68,124 17:00 89.0°F 0% 100%
12 — 68,502 16:30 88.5°F 0% 100%
13 — 68,973 15:00 86.9°F 0% 100%
14 — — — 87.0°F 0% 100%
15 — — — 87.1°F 0% 100%
16 — — — 86.3°F 0% 100%
17 — — — 89.5°F 0% 100%
18 — — — 88.3°F 0% 100%
19 — — — 82.5°F 0% 100%
20 — 68,567 16:00 90.5°F 0% 100%
21 — — — 85.6°F 0% 99%
22 — — — 83.4°F 0% 99%
23 — — — 85.6°F 0% 97%
24 — 60,843 14:00 82.4°F 0% 86%
25 — — — 76.9°F 0% 0%
26 — — — 79.8°F 0% 0%
27 — — — 83.5°F 0% 0%
28 — — — 80.3°F 0% 0%
29 — — — 66.0°F 0% 0%
30 — — — 68.3°F 0% 0%
31 — — — 72.6°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".