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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 90.9°F 0% 100%
02 89.2°F 0% 100%
03 90.0°F 0% 100%
04 89.6°F 0% 100%
05 88.5°F 0% 100%
06 89.9°F 0% 100%
07 89.4°F 0% 100%
08 88.4°F 0% 100%
09 89.1°F 0% 100%
10 90.6°F 0% 100%
11 89.9°F 0% 100%
12 91.5°F 0% 100%
13 93.2°F 0% 100%
14 89.3°F 0% 99%
15 92.2°F 0% 99%
16 74.3°F 0% 99%
17 75.2°F 0% 98%
18 79.2°F 0% 98%
19 81.3°F 0% 97%
20 81.9°F 0% 95%
21 83.8°F 0% 92%
22 86.5°F 0% 87%
23 87.7°F 0% 76%
24 87.4°F 0% 55%
25 85.3°F 0% 0%
26 84.4°F 0% 0%
27 87.4°F 0% 0%
28 87.1°F 0% 0%
29 86.4°F 0% 0%
30 87.0°F 0% 0%
31 80.1°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".