Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 72.4°F 0% 100%
02 81.1°F 0% 100%
03 73.2°F 0% 100%
04 68.0°F 0% 100%
05 76.2°F 0% 100%
06 78.4°F 0% 100%
07 79.4°F 0% 100%
08 77.7°F 0% 100%
09 73.3°F 0% 100%
10 62.5°F 0% 100%
11 59.5°F 0% 100%
12 61.2°F 0% 100%
13 60.0°F 0% 100%
14 65.9°F 0% 100%
15 62.3°F 0% 100%
16 67.2°F 0% 100%
17 52.7°F 0% 100%
18 58.8°F 0% 100%
19 60.3°F 0% 100%
20 60.2°F 0% 100%
21 65.7°F 0% 100%
22 64.6°F 0% 100%
23 62.5°F 0% 100%
24 49.9°F 0% 100%
25 31.6°F 0% 0%
26 35.1°F 0% 0%
27 45.1°F 0% 0%
28 53.0°F 0% 0%
29 60.1°F 0% 0%
30 53.4°F 0% 0%
31 43.8°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".