Daily

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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 56.9°F 0% 100%
02 63.4°F 0% 100%
03 65.8°F 0% 100%
04 70.6°F 0% 100%
05 71.6°F 0% 100%
06 44.9°F 0% 100%
07 44.2°F 0% 100%
08 41.4°F 0% 100%
09 41.5°F 0% 100%
10 43.7°F 0% 100%
11 53.0°F 0% 100%
12 56.1°F 0% 100%
13 53.4°F 0% 100%
14 53.5°F 0% 100%
15 55.7°F 0% 100%
16 60.7°F 0% 100%
17 66.2°F 0% 100%
18 62.5°F 0% 100%
19 42.1°F 0% 100%
20 37.2°F 0% 100%
21 34.8°F 0% 100%
22 46.5°F 0% 100%
23 50.2°F 0% 100%
24 54.3°F 0% 100%
25 62.7°F 0% 6%
26 62.7°F 0% 4%
27 55.9°F 0% 3%
28 60.0°F 0% 3%
29 67.3°F 0% 2%
30 69.5°F 2% 2%
31 67.3°F 0% 0%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".