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D Proj Peak (MW) Actual Peak (MW) Time of Peak Avg
Temp
4CP Prob P(peak on/after)
01 62,081 63,261 15:30 80.7°F 0% 100%
02 66,300 66,197 16:15 83.2°F 0% 100%
03 59,953 60,249 15:15 77.6°F 0% 100%
04 * 56,782 — 15:00 76.1°F 0% 100%
05 59,223 — 15:00 75.6°F 0% 100%
06 55,459 — 15:00 76.8°F 0% 100%
07 52,015 — 18:00 68.9°F 0% 100%
08 51,439 — 18:00 64.5°F 0% 100%
09 53,235 — 18:00 69.3°F 0% 100%
10 53,687 — 18:00 73.6°F 0% 100%
11 54,894 — 18:00 — 0% 100%
12 — — — — 10% 100%
13 — — — — 10% 95%
14 — — — — 10% 89%
15 — — — — 10% 83%
16 — — — — 10% 78%
17 — — — — 10% 73%
18 — — — — 10% 68%
19 — — — — 10% 62%
20 — — — — 10% 57%
21 — — — — 10% 51%
22 — — — — 10% 46%
23 — — — — 10% 41%
24 — — — — 10% 36%
25 — — — — 10% 31%
26 — — — — 10% 26%
27 — — — — 10% 20%
28 — — — — 10% 15%
29 — — — — 10% 9%
30 — — — — 10% 5%
Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".