Daily

Menu 4CP Dashboard

D	Proj Peak (MW)	Actual Peak (MW)	Time of Peak	Avg Temp	4CP Prob	P(peak on/after)
01	84,475	83,700	16:15	96.2°F	0%	100%
02	85,324	86,321	16:45	98.8°F	0%	100%
03	81,437	81,802	16:45	95.5°F	0%	100%
04	85,229	84,923	16:45	94.6°F	0%	100%
05	84,717	84,506	16:30	96.5°F	0%	100%
06	82,954	82,519	17:15	94.4°F	0%	100%
07	86,392	86,486	16:45	96.8°F	72%	100%
08	87,801	86,269	14:45	97.4°F	0%	28%
09	86,708	85,851	16:00	95.6°F	0%	28%
10	84,964	84,743	15:45	94.2°F	0%	28%
11	86,834	85,491	15:30	95.2°F	0%	28%
12	87,863	86,224	16:45	100.3°F	0%	28%
13	82,589	69,070	⚠ gap	96.6°F	8%	28%
14	87,274	85,825	15:45	96.3°F	0%	21%
15	87,135	85,732	14:30	97.8°F	0%	21%
16	86,613	86,345	17:00	96.2°F	0%	21%
17	83,235	82,761	17:00	94.1°F	0%	21%
18	83,352	82,746	16:30	93.4°F	0%	21%
19 *	81,939	—	16:00	94.8°F	0%	21%
20	84,103	—	16:00	96.2°F	0%	21%
21	84,172	—	16:00	97.3°F	1%	21%
22	81,770	—	16:00	95.4°F	0%	19%
23	80,536	—	16:00	95.2°F	0%	19%
24	78,914	—	16:00	95.0°F	0%	19%
25	76,460	—	16:00	93.8°F	0%	19%
26	75,171	—	16:00	—	0%	19%
27	—	—	—	—	5%	19%
28	—	—	—	—	5%	14%
29	—	—	—	—	4%	9%
30	—	—	—	—	5%	5%

Green = historic (actuals from DB)
Blue = forecast / estimate
* = today
Highest actual peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest proj. peak in month highlighted in red.
Highest average temperature in month highlighted in red.
4CP Prob = P(this day is the monthly 15-min peak). Current month: from what we know now (actuals + ERCOT forecast + weather-fitted proxy). Completed months: what the model would have said that morning (morning-of replay), so you can judge how it would have guided you.
P(peak on/after) = chance the race was still open as of that morning.
⚠ gap = afternoon data missing that day; true peak unknown, estimated from weather. Proxy fitted on Jul/Aug/Sep 2025+2026 (2024 excluded - grid changed). Measured days are never "adjusted".